Saturday, January 6, 2018

Let the Awards Season Begin! Chelsea's 2018 Golden Globes Film Predictions [Contributor: Chelsea]

The 75th Golden Globe Awards kick off the awards season this Sunday, and hopefully it will make some sense of this wide-open awards season. Last year proved to be a dull awards season with La La Land sweeping the Globes and Critics Choice Awards, with little love given to eventual Oscar winner Moonlight, and fan-favorites Hidden Figures or 20th Century Women. I asked for a chaotic Oscars and was rewarded with not only one of the biggest Oscar upsets ever, but some residual chaos that has lasted for most of this season. It has been an exciting race so far, with eight films having real potential to win one of these two top spots. I cannot remember an awards race more divided than this year, and I absolutely love it. Below are my predictions for our first big awards show of the season!

Best Motion Picture — Comedy or Musical
Lady Bird
Get Out
I, Tonya
The Disaster Artist
The Greatest Showman

It’s almost cruel to have Lady Bird and Get Out competing head to head in nearly every Best Film category this year when they’re easily two of the most uniquely wonderful films of the year. Both stick with you in very different ways thanks to the captivating performances of their ensembles and the precise writing and direction of Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele, respectively. I, Tonya could prove to be a spoiler here — if you take into account the H.F.P.A. schmoozing that’s happened this past month — but I really see it being down to the two most acclaimed films of the year and both are so deserving. My gut tells me Lady Bird has the edge here, and this could be the start of a nice awards run for Greta Gerwig and her team.

Snubs: Girls Trip; Battle of the Sexes, The Big Sick

Best Motion Picture — Drama
Call Me By Your Name
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Dunkirk spent the bulk of 2017 as one of my top three favorite films before the slew of fall films were released over the last two months. Even though it’s fallen behind some of the fresher films, I do think it deserves to win here. I am not enamored with frontrunner Three Billboards and would be very disappointed if it came away with any Best Picture/Director/Screenplay awards. The Shape of Water has been the warm and heartfelt technical achievement of the year, and I expect del Toro to come away with the gold.

Snubs: Wonder Woman; Darkest Hour

Best Actress in a Motion Picture — Comedy or Musical
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul
Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes
Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker

Battle of the Sexes is the best underrated film of 2017, and had Emma Stone not just won the Oscar last year, she’d be the clear frontrunner here with her portrayal of Billie Jean King in her match against Bobby Riggs. Because awards season is a mischievous fiend though, this is really a battle between the daughters of Lady Bird and I, Tonya. Lady Bird might be my favorite film of the year, but Robbie undeniably has the showier role as Tonya Harding and gives one of the best performances of the year. Ronan has her third nomination here, and second in the last three years, so that could give her the edge over Robbie, but do not be surprised if Robbie snags a surprise win.

Snubs: Regina Hall, Girls Trip

Best Actress in a Motion Picture — Drama
Meryl Streep, The Post
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World

Best Actress has been the fiercest of all the categories this year, with so many women in different roles making bids with their flawless work. Even though Three Billboards looks worse in my mind the more I sit with it, it’s not because of Frances McDormand. She brings so much complexity to an unlikable and flawed script, and it would be a perfect way for the H.F.P.A. to finally recognize her. Then of course you have previous Globe winners Chastain and Hawkins with their incredibly dynamic roles that could easily sway a voter their way depending on how recently they viewed the film. There is no woman more loved by the Globes than Meryl Streep though. The Post brought her 31st competitive nomination with the organization, and her Lifetime Achievement Award speech from last year is still looked at as one of the brightest moments of 2017. I could really see any of these ladies winning but I would love to see Streep up on stage again just to hear her speak.

Snubs: Gal Gadot, Wonder Woman

Best Actor in a Motion Picture — Comedy or Musical
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver

I’m really sad I didn’t like The Disaster Artist more because James Franco is a clear frontrunner here. His Wiseau never got past a desperate impression, and low-key Dave Franco had the better and more complete performance as Greg Sestero. My favorite here is Daniel Kaluuya and I really hope Get Out gets some love in this category if it doesn’t get Best Comedy. His performance guides us throughout the entire film, and I cannot think of a more iconic image than him being hypnotized.

Snubs: Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick

Best Actor in a Motion Picture — Drama
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Tom Hanks, The Post
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

I did not expect to like Darkest Hour at all before I saw it. It seemed like a stuffy British film in the same vein as The King’s Speech, which is just not my jam. It turned out being so much warmer and funnier than I ever would have imagined. Gary Oldman is ridiculously great as Winston Churchill and is overdue for a win at any of these shows. His main competition comes from the charming Timothée Chalamet, who is so confident in Call Me By Your Name and gets an extra boost from being a completely different character in Lady Bird.

Snubs: Hugh Jackman, Logan; Chadwick Boseman, Marshall

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water
Hong Chau, Downsizing

Much like Best Actress, Supporting Actress is an embarrassment of riches with so much talent here and so much talent left off. Laurie Metcalf easily gives my favorite performance of the year as Marion McPherson in Lady Bird, the mom who leaves us wanting to call all of our moms and tell them how much we love them. Metcalf is the frontrunner for the Oscar but the Globes are always a little off-kilter, so this could easily go to the other mom character — Allison Janney — as the worst mom in I, Tonya. Mary J. Blige’s superstar status could propel her to a win, much like Lady Gaga a few years back. My heart tells me Laurie Metcalf deserves to win but awards season is the time for that to be broken.

Snubs: Tiffany Haddish, Girls Trip; Beanie Feldstein, Lady Bird

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World

I find this category to be absurdly boring this year, with Jenkins and Rockwell being additions because their movies are so popular. Willem Dafoe is the clear frontrunner for the Oscar but anybody watching last year will tell you that the Globes like to anoint shiny new people and popular celebrities. Armie Hammer fits the bill as the attractive young man who really should be in the leading category but is hanging out here instead — much like Aaron Taylor-Johnson last year. Or they could go with the story of the year that is Christopher Plummer saving All the Money in the World. I see one of those last two scenarios being more realistic than giving it to the more subdued Dafoe in The Florida Project.

Snubs: Lil Rel Howery, Get Out

Best Director, Motion Picture
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Steven Spielberg, The Post
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World

I have so many issues with this category, I don’t even know where to begin. Christopher Nolan is my favorite of this bunch, but del Toro should have this in the bag. Both directors have such great technical achievements but the heart in del Toro’s film and directing is so much more obvious than in Nolan’s. Ridley Scott is only in here because his stunt recasting didn’t fail and I loathe seeing McDonagh in this category. Normally I’m salty toward Spielberg... but I’ll be nice today. This year could have had a much better category of directors and it’s easily the most disappointing category for the Globes.

Snubs: Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird; Jordan Peele, Get Out; Patty Jenkins, Wonder Woman

Best Animated Feature Film
Loving Vincent
The Breadwinner
The Boss Baby

I really should abstain from discussing this category since I’ve seen some of these while watching toddlers. Coco is your frontrunner but The Breadwinner is doing something more fun than the rest. I also really have soft spots for Loving Vincent and Ferdinand. The only one I cringe at is The Boss Baby. I am still not over those annoying teasers.

Best Screenplay, Motion Picture
Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig)
The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor)
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh)
The Post (Liz Hannah and Josh Singer)
Molly’s Game (Aaron Sorkin)

Lady Bird is the best film of this whole list but I know how often women fail to win these categories, so I have to temper my expectations. But it deserves it. Really, anything but Three Billboards though is fine by me. The script was probably the worst element of the film and we really don’t need to reward its racism and homophobia.

Snubs: Get Out (Jordan Peele), Darkest Hour (Anthony McCarten), The Big Sick (Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani)

Best Original Song
“Remember Me,” Coco
“This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman
“Mighty River,” Mudbound
“Home,” Ferdinand
“The Star,” The Star

I have some rationally irrational hatred for The Greatest Showman and just cannot with anything related to it. Give it to Mudbound’s “Mighty River” and let Mary J. Blige take home a well-earned award.

Snubs: “If I Dare,” Battle of the Sexes; “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever,” Fifty Shades Darker (I loathe myself for even suggesting this film get any sort of recognition but here we are. It doesn’t deserve its soundtracks.)

Best Original Score — Motion Picture
The Shape of Water
The Post
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Phantom Thread

Dunkirk is, hands down, the most stressful thing I watched in 2017, and the score is 100% the reason why. I know people are pulling for Phantom Thread but this would be the perfect place to honor Dunkirk. I can also see The Shape of Water cleaning up here. Its soundtrack is just gorgeous.

Best Foreign Language Film
The Square
First They Killed My Father
In the Fade
A Fantastic Woman

I’m personally hoping for A Fantastic Woman to make itself known here but Angelina Jolie is a star, and I wouldn’t be mad to see First They Killed My Father win here. She’s so much more confident as a filmmaker with it and deserves more buzz than she’s getting.

Those are my pseudo-chaotic predictions for the Globes this year. Who will you be cheering for and who did you think deserved more love? Join me in live-tweeting this potential mess Sunday night!


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