Saturday, January 7, 2017

2017 Golden Globe Awards: Film and Television Predictions [Contributor: Chelsea]

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My favorite time of year is properly kicking off this Sunday with the 2017 Golden Globe Awards. The Oscar race is my version of sports — I have my films that I’m cheering for that will inevitably lose to a more popular pick. With the Broadcast Film Critics Association announcing their awards crazy early in December, the Globes  by default — are going to be the most accurate predictor on how this awards race will shape up over the next two months. Along the way, we’ll get to see lots of new television programs get their first major honors. Below are my predictions for each category and overall thoughts on each race.

FILM

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Best Motion Picture — Drama

Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Chelsea’s Vote: Lion
Will Probably Win: Moonlight
Dark Horse: Manchester by the Sea
Snubbed: Jackie, Hidden Figures, Arrival 

The first hour of Lion might be the best thing I’ve watched all year and I would love for it to win any sort of award. Moonlight is the favorite here and the film is a work of art and would be a perfect winner as well. It’s the most hopeful of the three Best Picture frontrunners and would show a change of tides in the diversity and inclusion conversation. Not having Jackie in this category is completely egregious though. It was the best technically made film of 2016 and just so bitingly relevant to our current cultural climate.

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Best Motion Picture — Comedy 

20th Century Women
Deadpool
Florence Foster Jenkins
La La Land
Sing Street

Chelsea’s Vote: 20th Century Women
Will Probably Win: La La Land
Dark Horse: Florence Foster Jenkins
Snubbed: Maggie’s Plan, Love & Friendship, The Meddler 

I’m a sucker for a good female-fronted ensemble comedy that can hit those painful moments of honesty. 20th Century Women nailed that for me, and more. While this category was tailor-made for La La Land, I’m not the biggest fan of the film. The overall music and dancing is pretty meh, and I will never not be angry at the terrible stylistic choice of the cameras not being in focus. It’s wonderful seeing Sing Street here since it was the best musical of 2016. I am surprised that Love & Friendship didn’t get any love here or in Best Comedy Actress since it was immaculately made and Kate Beckinsale gave a career-defining performance.

Best Director

Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Chelsea’s Vote: Barry Jenkins
Will Probably Win: Damien Chazelle
Dark Horse: Barry Jenkins
Snubbed: Pablo Larrain, Jackie

Barry Jenkins is the only person I care about in this category. Moonlight was pitch-perfect in all three acts, and Jenkins shows that he’s a force to be reckoned with. Chazelle has proven that he’s a pretty mediocre director who can’t think outside his failed mediocre jazz dreams. Mel Gibson and Hacksaw Ridge are BIG question marks this awards season. People are showing they’re ready to forgive with nominations, but do they want to reward him with any wins?

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Best Actress in a Motion Picture — Drama 

Amy Adams, Arrival
Jessica Chastain, Miss Sloane
Isabelle Huppert, Elle
Ruth Negga, Loving
Natalie Portman, Jackie

Chelsea’s Vote: Amy Adams
Will Probably Win: Natalie Portman
Dark Horse: Isabelle Huppert
Snubbed: Blake Lively (The Shallows); Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures)

It’s hard to argue with any of the nominees since I would give them all awards, in addition to my snubs. Natalie Portman’s hauntingly beautiful portrayal of the former First Lady will stick with you, but Amy Adams destroyed me with her journey as the linguist figuring out an alien language. Also, nobody is talking about how phenomenal Blake Lively was in The Shallows, and I’ve been saying since the summer that it’s her Revenant.

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Best Actress in a Motion Picture — Comedy 

Annette Bening, 20th Century Women
Lily Collins, Rules Don't Apply
Hailee Steinfeld, The Edge of Seventeen
Emma Stone, La La Land
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Chelsea’s Vote: Annette Bening
Will Probably Win: Emma Stone
Dark Horse: Meryl Streep
Snubbed: Greta Gerwig (Maggie’s Plan); Susan Sarandon (The Meddler); Kate Beckinsale (Love & Friendship)

Annette Bening is always and forever my vote for everything but I was delighted to see Hailee Steinfeld pop up here in the criminally-underrated The Edge of Seventeen. If I could award both ladies, then I would. Again, this category was made for La La Land and Emma Stone. If she doesn’t win this, I will write a love letter to all the films I’ve hated in the past (Argo, The Artist, Braveheart, etc). I’m not surprised Greta Gerwig didn’t make it in for Maggie’s Plan but it is kind of crazy that Susan Sarandon and Kate Beckinsale didn’t make it in for their respective films either.

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Best Actor in a Motion Picture — Drama 

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Joel Edgerton, Loving
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington, Fences

Chelsea’s Vote: Andrew Garfield
Will Probably Win: Casey Affleck
Dark Horse: Denzel Washington
Snubbed: Sunny Pawar (Lion)

I will always vote for Andrew Garfield because he and Denzel are the bright spots in this terrible year for leading men. Casey Affleck will probably win this but not enough people are talking about the sexual harassment double standard with him and Nate Parker. Both of their films debuted at Sundance and have had this long to talk about the allegations, but only one career was ruined.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture — Comedy 

Colin Farrell, The Lobster
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins
Jonah Hill, War Dogs
Ryan Reynolds, Deadpool

Chelsea’s Vote: Hugh Grant
Will Probably Win: Ryan Gosling
Dark Horse: Ryan Reynolds
Snubbed: Ferdia Walsh-Peelo (Sing Street); Andy Samberg (Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping); Zac Efron (Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising)

It’s sad when this was the best the category could do for comedy actors. I’m only halfheartedly for Hugh Grant since Florence Foster Jenkins was a delight but if Ryan Gosling doesn’t get this, I would really start worrying about La La Land.

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Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture 

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Simon Helberg, Florence Foster Jenkins
Dev Patel, Lion
Aaron Taylor Johnson, Nocturnal Animals

Chelsea’s Vote: Mahershala Ali
Will Probably Win: Mahershala Ali
Dark Horse: Dev Patel
Snubbed: Channing Tatum (Hail, Caesar!)

My goal is to one day get Channing Tatum an Oscar, but Hail, Caesar! would have been the perfect film to award him for. It’s silly and the best song-and-dance moment in any film of 2016. I will be super happy when Mahershala Ali wins this award. He set the tone for Moonlight and its masculine themes, and he’s one of the best working actors today.

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Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture 

Viola Davis, Fences
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

Chelsea’s Vote: Viola Davis
Will Probably Win: Viola Davis
Dark Horse: Michelle Williams
Snubbed: Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women); Janelle MonĂ¡e (Hidden Figures)

Viola Davis will win this — not because she’s Viola Davis and she’s overdue for a win, but because she’s Viola Davis and always gives powerhouse performances. She should’ve won for The Help years ago. Yet in every role, no matter how small (looking at you, Doubt), she gives her whole self and is deserving of some recognition. It’s a running theme that Greta Gerwig was in some of my favorite films of 2016. Her work in 20th Century Women, Jackie, and Maggie’s Plan gave us rich and thoughtful characters, and it’s a shame none of her work is being honored.

Best Screenplay

Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Tom Ford, Nocturnal Animals
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Taylor Sheridan, Hell or High Water

Chelsea’s Vote: Moonlight
Will Probably Win: Manchester by the Sea
Dark Horse: La La Land
Snubbed: Hail, Caesar!; 20th Century Women; The Edge of Seventeen; Fences

This is another weak category. Moonlight is the only script that really delivered for me in this category, but Lonergan is such a great writer and a past nominee. If they’re going to honor Manchester by the Sea anywhere, it would be here. Still, there are so many other films I would put here instead of most of the nominees.


Best Original Score

Moonlight
La La Land
Arrival
Lion
Hidden Figures

Chelsea’s Vote: Arrival
Will Probably Win: La La Land
Dark Horse: Lion
Snubbed: Jackie; Moana; Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

There are so many great options here — just swap La La Land with Jackie and you’d have the perfect category.


Best Original Song 

“Can't Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“Faith,” Sing
“Gold,” Gold
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana

Chelsea’s Vote: Moana
Will Probably Win: La La Land
Dark Horse: Moana
Snubbed: “Drive It Like You Stole It,” Sing Street

Moana is wonderful and Lin-Manuel Miranda deserves all the awards and I want another acceptance speech that will make me cry. #TeamLin  I’m sad the best song from La La Land — “Audition (Fools Who Dream)” — didn’t get nominated or the most catchy song of the year, “Drive It Like You Stole It” from Sing Street.

Best Animated Feature Film

Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
My Life as a Zucchini
Sing
Zootopia

Chelsea’s Vote: Moana
Will Probably Win: Zootopia
Dark Horse: Kubo and the Two Strings
Snubbed: The Red Turtle

There were so many great animated films this year, but why is Sing here?


Best Foreign Language Film

Divines
Elle
Neruda
The Salesman
Toni Erdmann

I haven’t had the chance to see these yet, so no predictions from me.

TELEVISION

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Best TV Series — Drama 

The Crown
Game of Thrones
Stranger Things
This Is Us
Westworld

Chelsea’s Vote: Stranger Things
Will Probably Win: The Crown
Dark Horse: Westworld
Snubbed: Wynonna Earp

This category is wonderful in that we have four new programs and don’t really know what will win. Game of Thrones hasn’t ever won here, and I don’t see that changing this weekend. This Is Us and Westworld are big hits this fall, so it’s a battle of the new shows. If I had it my way, something like Wynonna Earp would win but it would NEVER be nominated.

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Best TV Series — Comedy/Musical

Atlanta
black-ish
Mozart in the Jungle
Transparent
Veep

Chelsea’s Vote: black-ish
Will Probably Win: Atlanta
Dark Horse: Veep
Snubbed: You’re the Worst; Insecure

It’s been a pretty meh year for comedies, but luckily the Globes got it mostly right with their picks. It will be great seeing Donald Glover walk away with any award, and Atlanta is more than deserving. But I hope black-ish can sneak in a couple of awards themselves. It’s been doing amazing work for years. While I will always be You’re the Worst’s biggest supporter, I knew it had a slim chance at nominations. I am surprised Insecure didn’t sneak in there though.

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Best TV Miniseries or Movie

American Crime
The Dresser
The Night Manager
The Night Of
The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

We all know The People v. O.J. Simpson will win this and deserves to win this and everything else under the sun. One of the best pieces of media released this year, and possibly ever. I would put this next to anything at the Oscars and say it should win. The only thing I could really see upsetting it is The Night Of, but I doubt it.

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Best TV Actress — Drama 

Caitriona Balfe, Outlander
Claire Foy, The Crown
Keri Russell, The Americans
Winona Ryder, Stranger Things
Evan Rachel Wood, Westworld

Chelsea’s Vote: Winona Ryder
Will Probably Win: Claire Foy
Dark Horse: Evan Rachel Wood
Snubbed: Shiri Appleby (UnReal)

This is such a stacked category with a couple of returning contenders and a bunch of newcomers that have a lot of heat. This really could go any way, since the Globes never seem to have any rhyme or reason when it comes to television.

Best TV Actress — Comedy

Rachel Bloom, Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Sarah Jessica Parker, Divorce
Issa Rae, Insecure
Gina Rodriguez, Jane the Virgin
Tracee Ellis Ross, black-ish

Chelsea’s Vote: Issa Rae
Will Probably Win: Tracee Ellis Ross
Dark Horse: Sarah Jessica Parker
Snubbed: Aya Cash (You’re the Worst)

The Globes always love to honor the fresh face women in comedy (see Gina Rodriguez and Rachel Bloom), which is why Julia Louis-Dreyfus has never won for Veep. This would work well in Tracee Ellis Ross and Issa Rae’s favor but I cannot discount Sarah Jessica Parker’s return to television. She has a long history of cleaning up at the Globes. I’m gonna go big and say Tracee has this one. Her show is also nominated for Best Comedy and this would be a nice way to honor black-ish.

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Best Actress — Mini-Series or TV Movie 

Felicity Huffman, American Crime
Riley Keough, The Girlfriend Experience
Sarah Paulson, The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
Charlotte Rampling, London Spy
Kerry Washington, Confirmation

Sarah Paulson has won every award for this; you could give her an Oscar as well and nobody would be mad. If she loses this, I will be SHOCKED.

Best TV Actor — Drama

Rami Malek, Mr. Robot
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Matthew Rhys, The Americans
Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan
Billy Bob Thornton, Goliath

I find myself not really caring about this category. There are a lot of white male anti-heroes, plus the adorably wonderful Rami Malek. Give this to Rami because at least he’s an anti-hero I can get behind.

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Best TV Actor — Comedy 

Anthony Anderson, black-ish
Gael Garcia Bernal, Mozart in the Jungle
Donald Glover, Atlanta
Nick Nolte, Graves
Jeffrey Tambor, Transparent

I’m just so proud of Donald Glover and he deserves all the recognition coming his way. Troy got out of Greendale!

Best Actor — Mini-Series or TV Movie

Riz Ahmed, The Night Of
Bryan Cranston, All the Way
Tom Hiddleston, The Night Manager
John Turturro, The Night Of
Courtney B. Vance, The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

See all arguments for The People v. O.J. Simpson above then guess who will win. The series was a cultural phenomenon and I don’t know if anything can beat it, or deserves to beat it.

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Best Supporting Actress in a TV Series, Miniseries, or TV Movie

Olivia Colman, The Night Manager
Lena Headey, Game of Thrones
Chrissy Metz, This Is Us
Mandy Moore, This Is Us
Thandie Newton, Westworld

Chelsea’s Vote: Chrissy Metz
Probably Win: Thandie Newton
Dark Horse: Lena Headey
Snubbed: Millie Bobby Brown (Stranger Things)

The Globes really loved This Is Us, apparently, based on both leading ladies getting nominations. I worry the two will split their vote, and this would be the best place to honor Westworld. You can never count out Lena Headey, though she has never won an award from any major voting body for Game of Thrones. The uncertainty in many of these TV categories is exciting!

Best Supporting Actor in a TV Series, Miniseries, or TV Movie

Sterling K. Brown, The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story
Hugh Laurie, The Night Manager
John Lithgow, The Crown
Christian Slater, Mr. Robot
John Travolta, The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story

Sterling K. Brown has won every award he’s been up for with this role and the Globes love his new project This Is Us, so the stars are aligning for him to take this as well. He has some competition from John Lithgow if the HFPA proves they love The Crown, but other than that, he should really make some space on his mantle.

Who do you think will win tomorrow night at the Golden Globes? Sound off in the comments below!

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