Chelsea's Dream Oscar 2018 Predictions [Contributor: Chelsea]

Last year when I asked for chaos at the Oscars, I did not ever imagine Moonlight winning in such a disastrous fashion. This year, the Oscar race has felt like a lifetime with the winter Olympics extending the wait period between nominations and the ceremony, and giving all of us Oscar fans and predictors way too much time to dream up every scenario for each nominee to win Best Picture. The only real unknowns are Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay, and many Oscar followers are expecting those two to match this year and be any indication of this confusing year in film. While none of us really know what’s going to happen before those envelopes are opened, here are my last-minute predictions, along with what my heart wants to win.



Best Picture
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

While all the other televised award shows have a plurality vote — where the nominee with the most votes wins — preferential ballot is a little more complicated, as it asks the voters to rank all of the films from their favorite to least favorite and a consensus winner is found. Some sort of stat is missing from each nominee that will make it difficult to win. Three Billboards doesn’t have directing, The Shape of Water doesn’t have SAG Ensemble, Lady Bird and Get Out don’t have editing or craft nominations, and Dunkirk doesn’t have writing or acting. Of all of these stats, I think Get Out, Lady Bird, and Three Billboards have the least to overcome, but Three Billboards is divisive on the preferential ballot — similarly to La La Land — while Get Out, Lady Bird, and Dunkirk perform very well.

It would be hilarious if Call Me By Your Name or Phantom Thread came out of left field to win. If you want to play it safe, predict Three Billboards but if you want to take a risk, go with Get Out. I only see it winning two awards but Spotlight did the same only two years ago. If The Shape of Water can manage to overcome not having a SAG Ensemble nomination, then it would be a fun genre winner. My heart of course wants Lady Bird to win with Call Me By Your Name and Get Out as my second and third choices, but I’ve learned to never get my hopes up win it comes to awards. The nomination is the real win and plenty of great films have never won awards.



Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

It’s rare to have a category where all the nominees are deserving, but arguments can be made for each of these filmmakers. After sweeping all the precursors, Guillermo del Toro should have this in the bag. The Shape of Water is visually stunning and recently all the Best Director winners have been for visually challenging films like Gravity, Life of Pi, and The Revenant. If I had to predict an upset, it would be Paul Thomas Anderson. The man has been nominated for eight Oscars across five films, including Best Director a decade ago. Phantom Thread surprised us all on Oscar morning, and I could see it surprising us again. I would LOVE to see Greta Gerwig take it home because I think she was the most accomplished director in putting her vision to the screen — her or Christopher Nolan, who never seems to catch a break with these voters.



Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Why hasn’t Daniel Kaluuya been talked about more for this? His face is the most iconic image of 2017 film, and he deserves to be celebrated more for his subtle performance. Gary Oldman is amazing in Darkest Hour and will win but it would have been fun to see more people challenge him leading up to this night and have a real race.



Best Actress
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post

Frances McDormand will rightfully win her second Oscar, and I won’t be mad about it. Three Billboards is easily my least favorite film nominated in this bunch but her performance is the saving grace of that film. Without her, the film would not have made it into the Oscar race at all.



Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards

I will forever be upset that Armie Hammer wasn’t nominated and isn’t winning for his beautiful performance in Call Me By Your Name. Sam Rockwell is riding the Three Billboards wave to a win here, and while his character is the big reason the film is divisive, he is such a great and beloved actor that the backlash won’t hurt him. Richard Jenkins is my personal favorite of this bunch, and I really hope he wins one of these one day. With every project, he brings so much heart, depth, and character to the role, and The Shape of Water really rests on his and Sally Hawkins shoulders.



Best Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Never bet against Allison Janney. She is a treasure in the industry and great at everything. I never thought I’d want Allison Janney to lose an award but I, Tonya is just not something I would award. Yes, Laurie Metcalf is easily my favorite of this bunch but Mary J. Blige and Lesley Manville give more nuanced performances than what Janney was allowed. She will win though and I will happily call her Academy Award-winner Allison Janney. Never bet against her.



Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly's Game
Logan
Mudbound

Call Me By Your Name should and will win. James Ivory has somehow never won one of these and is more than deserving. I hate that this field is so weak, with Logan and Mudbound being the only other really great scripts.



Best Original Screenplay
The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards

I’ve said this many times that my dream would be for The Shape of Water to win Picture, Lady Bird to win Director, and Get Out to win Screenplay. Sure, my favorite screenplay is Lady Bird, but the BEST and most original screenplay is Get Out. Every beat in that film is layered with suspense, humor, and an eerie real world nerve that never stops pulsing. It’ll be a real battle between Writers Guild winner Get Out and Three Billboards. And since Three Billboards wasn’t eligible for the WGA, we don’t know how it’s going to pan out. It would delight the heck out of me to see The Big Sick win this and throw everybody off and because it would be so well-deserved.



Best Animated Feature Film
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

Coco will win this because you should never bet against Disney, but my nephew and I watched Ferdinand and it is so fun and has more to say than your average animated film. There is a great little mix of films this year in terms of animation style and story, and it isn’t dominated by Disney favorites.



Best Foreign Language Film
The Insult
Loveless
On Bodo and Soul
The Square
A Fantastic Woman

This will be a tight race between The Square and A Fantastic Woman, but I’m giving the edge to A Fantastic Woman. The film’s star Daniela Vega will be presenting at the Oscars — a first for a transgender actress — and it would be great to see a wholly well-rounded film with great story, visuals, and acting win.



Best Film Editing
Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I really want Baby Driver to win for the chaos of it all. Sure, I should be smart and bet on Dunkirk because it was a perfectly-edited film with a complex timeline. Both are very deserving of this but I could swap out the other three for more accomplished nominees. It was risky filming and editing Baby Driver to the beat of every song, but it paid off and became a huge hit because of it. And this is the technical category that while good at predicting Best Picture, it does occasionally go to non-Best Picture nominees like The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and The Bourne Ultimatum when the craft is just too good to deny.



Best Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

I’m always scared to bet on Roger Deakins to ever win this because he’s like Charlie Brown and the Academy is holding that football in front of him yet again with this Blade Runner 2049 nomination. He’s easily the frontrunner, but don’t be surprised if Dunkirk picks up steam in the technical categories and steals this one. Dunkirk is a beautiful film and I think more deserving than Blade Runner 2049, but so many of these cinematographers have stood on the shoulders of Roger Deakins. My personal favorite would be Mudbound or Dunkirk in terms of “best” but Blade Runner has the “most” cinematography because what else can Deakins do to try to win at this point?



Best Original Score
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

I would be shocked if The Shape of Water lost this. The score sold so much of this fairytale story and really brought it all together. It’s my favorite thing about the film and my favorite in the category.



Best Original Song
"Mighty River," Mudbound
"Mystery of Love," Call Me By Your Name
"Remember Me," Coco
"Stand Up for Something," Marshall
"This Is Me," The Greatest Showman

I just really want Call Me By Your Name to win this if your best song also looks at the best use of the song within the film. I would also love for Mary J. Blige to win something for Mudbound, and this would be the easiest category for it. But again, don’t vote against the Disney favorite Coco or last year’s winners Pasek and Paul for "This Is Me." While I think this was a weak year for original songs, the performances will be a lot of fun and a nice break from the ceremony.

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They May Not Win Oscars But They Won Our Hearts: Top 3 Film Superlatives of 2017 [Contributors: Chelsea and Jon]

2017 was an absurd year for the world, but the one thing we could always fall back on was film. There were plenty of average, fun films that had problems and were kind of dumb (though you still enjoyed them). While some of these won’t make our Top Films of the Year superlative list and won’t be sweeping your award shows, we wanted to shed some light on the good and bad films of 2017 that you should still check out. Because sometimes cheesy and silly movies are the best ones.



Best Drama
Dunkirk
Logan
Wonder Woman 



Best Comedy
Brigsby Bear  
Girls Trip 
Lady Bird



Best Action Film
Baby Driver
Power Rangers
Kong: Skull Island



Y’all Slept on This Treasure!  
Battle of the Sexes
Okja
Power Rangers



Your Platform Release Killed Me 
Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
The Florida Project
Phantom Thread



Surprisingly Great and I Shouldn’t Have Judged You
Darkest Hour
Free Fire
Kong: Skull Island



You Could Have Been Awesome But You Dropped The Ball 
Atomic Blonde
The Disaster Artist
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2



Calm Down, You’re Not That Great 
The Lego Batman Movie
Spider-Man: Homecoming
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri



People Who Are the Lights of Our Lives
Greta Gerwig
Jordan Peele
Power Rangers Cast (Naomi Scott, Dacre Montgomery, RJ Cyler, Becky G, Ludi Lin)



Pitch Perfect Award for Film I’m Going to Rewatch a Billion Times
Baby Driver
Lady Bird
Wonder Woman

What were some of your favorite 2017 films that won't sweep the Oscars tonight?

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Breaking Down the 90th Annual Academy Award Nominations [Contributor: Chelsea]

I have had some time to sit on this year's Oscar nominations, as well as see a few more of the contenders. And I believe this year is giving us one of the best Oscar ceremonies in years. Yes, there are plenty of films and performers I would have loved to have seen honored, but overall, it’s one of the strongest, most confusing awards seasons in a long time. It’s far more fun not knowing what’s going to happen and having hope that your favorites can prevail. Here are some of my thoughts on the nominations and the race at this point.

BEST PICTURE

Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This has been a great year in that there are solid arguments for four of these nominees winning Best Picture. I personally really love eight of the nine nominees, with Three Billboards continuing to be a sore spot in my mind. Many people thought I, Tonya or The Florida Project could sneak in here, but the Academy went a little more British by adding Phantom Thread and Darkest Hour (both of which delighted me).

The Shape of Water feels like it could break a longstanding SAG Awards statistic and take the awards home, which would be great for genre film and original storytelling. In my ideal Picture/Director/Screenplay split, del Toro would get Picture, Gerwig would have Director, and Peele would earn Screenplay. The fact that The Shape of Water looks like a $100 million film and cost less than $20 million is so impressive.

BEST DIRECTOR

Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson, Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

This is possibly my favorite category because I would be thrilled with any of these directors winning. Of course I want Greta Gerwig or Jordan Peele to make history here but it’s hard to deny del Toro’s technical accomplishment or Nolan and Anderson being overdue for recognition. If I had to pick my favorite directors who made their specific visions come to life, it would be Gerwig and Anderson. Both are so uniquely their own visions and voices and the performances in the films are so specific to the stories. I would love for Gerwig to snag this trophy, though it’s really del Toro’s to lose at this point. The surprise addition of P.T. Anderson over Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards) is the biggest shake-up this Oscar season. Before nomination morning, many of us had presumed Three Billboards to be the Best Picture winner but its director being excluded here gives the film an enormous uphill battle. Argo and Driving Miss Daisy are the only films to win Best Picture without a Director nomination, and McDonagh is no Ben Affleck.

BEST ACTOR

Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

I mean, Gary Oldman was really great in Darkest Hour and I’m still shocked I loved that film as much as I did... but Daniel Kaluuya still had my favorite performance of the year and easily the most iconic. I would love for him to shock everyone and snag a win, but that’s a chaotic dream of mine. Chalamet also makes a great case for a win if you’ve watched the last five minutes of Call Me By Your Name. The unwavering shot of his face will haunt you weeks after watching.

More than anything though, I think we’re all just really thankful James Franco didn’t make it onto this list.

BEST ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post

Coincidentally, this is also my dream brunch company. I’m cool with five-way ties at the Oscars. I loved all of these ladies a lot and they all bring something so striking to the screen. If Frances wins, PLEASE don’t censor her and give her all the time in the world.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards

This category is the first one I really take issue with because Armie Hammer in Call Me By Your Name should’ve been a slam dunk. So much heart and vulnerability in that beautiful, loving role. It is a complete shame he isn’t here. Behind him, I found Richard Jenkins to be my favorite in this particular category. So much of the heart and humor in The Shape of Water came from his performance and I’m just waiting for him to get some love. I have a lot of negative opinions about Three Billboards, and most of them are about Sam Rockwell’s character, but he is always a great actor — even in a tone deaf film. I love seeing working actors get these prizes, so if he wins this, I’ll be a little salty about the film but I’ll be happy for him.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

I’m thrilled to see Metcalf, Blige, and Manville in here. All of them give such memorable performances and steal their respective films. I will always want the best for Octavia Spencer, and that means wanting more roles for her besides the best friend. My heart is also in an odd place where I don’t want Allison Janney to win an award — not because she isn’t great, but because she’s too good for such a one-dimensional role. Her whole storyline is playing evil and it’s so poorly directed. Hollywood, give Allison Janney more complex leading roles because she deserves the best. So I’ll be happy of course being able to call her “Academy Award-winner Allison Janney,” but I just want better roles for her going forward. I love these ladies though and wish them all killer roles in the future.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Call Me By Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly's Game
Logan
Mudbound

How cool is it that a superhero film got nominated in this category? A superhero film that did something fresh and original too! Sans The Disaster Artist, I also really liked this category. I’m pulling for Call Me By Your Name or Mudbound to snag this but it would be wild if Logan took it home. Swap The Disaster Artist for Wonder Woman, and this would have been a perfect category.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards

I have no idea what’s going to win here, but if anybody has any sense, it won’t be Three Billboards. The only thing worse than its direction was the script that clearly had no understanding of the race relations in Midwest America. Sticking to my dream split from above, I would love to see Get Out win this and if not that then Lady Bird or The Big Sick. (Sorry The Shape of Water. The script was not your strong point.) Nothing was more original or iconic than what Jordan Peele wrote for the screen. He captured culture at such a crucial moment and gave us hope for 2017. I do think this category will be indicative of Best Picture, since the four major contenders for Picture are here too. We’ll see how things go on Oscar night!

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

But how silly is it that The Boss Baby is an Oscar-nominated film? Ridiculous. The other four films are pretty delightful though, with Ferdinand having a special place in my heart. I do expect Coco to take home the trophy though, because Disney.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

The Insult
Loveless
On Bodo and Soul
The Square
A Fantastic Woman

So many of the presumptive frontrunners this season didn’t even make the shortlist before nomination day. A Fantastic Woman slowly came under the radar to become the frontrunner, but don’t underestimate The Square or Loveless if any transphobia is lingering in the Academy’s voters.

BEST FILM EDITING

Baby Driver
Dunkirk
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

This is where Dunkirk should get some love because that film is all magnificent editing. Taking three different timelines and interweaving them into a masterpiece of a war film is inspiring. Baby Driver also benefits from being a film that is all about the editing and would be a fun win as well. The Shape of Water and Three Billboards benefits from being Best Picture nominees but there was nothing spectacular about them here. The lack of Get Out, Lady Bird, and Call Me By Your Name is really discouraging here but not surprising.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Mudbound
The Shape of Water

I know Roger Deakins is overdue but Dunkirk, Mudbound, and The Shape of Water were all way more beautiful than Blade Runner 2049. I don’t know if this will be Deakins’ year and I don’t know if it should be. Just the difficulty that went into making Dunkirk and Mudbound and the conditions they had to film in were just astounding. And The Shape of Water is so striking and memorable with those beautiful water shots. I would actually swap out either Darkest Hour or Blade Runner for The Last Jedi because so many of those shots are stupidly beautiful.

Shout-out to Rachel Morrison (Mudbound) for being the first female nominated for this category (and a queer female at that). Many more should have come before you but I know many will follow and make you proud.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Oh this is tough because The Shape of Water, Dunkirk, and Phantom Thread were so beautiful. And I’m a sucker for a Star Wars score. Even Three Billboards — as terrible of a film as it is — is set to one beautiful composition. I’d put my money on The Shape of Water but don’t be surprised if Phantom Thread wins it all.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

"Mighty River," Mudbound
"Mystery of Love," Call Me By Your Name
"Remember Me," Coco
"Stand Up for Something," Marshall
"This Is Me," The Greatest Showman

I hate myself for taking the song from Marshall out of my official predictions the night before nominations but I’m so glad it's here. This should be the place Call Me By Your Name or Mudbound win. One of them needs to get Screenplay and the other can get Song. I’d rather Mudbound get song so Blige doesn’t come home empty-handed. It was a relatively weak year for original songs in film and this list kind of shows it. It feels like it was scrapped together after the first two on this list.

ALL THE OTHER AWARDS

Many of these categories are odd mixes of The Shape of Water vs. Dunkirk vs. Phantom Thread vs. Darkest Hour, with sprinkles of blockbuster films and odd Makeup and Hairstyling choices. The biggest surprise of the race was how much of a non-presence The Post made in these categories and how quickly it fell from the conversation. If The Shape of Water cleans up in these technical categories, then it should have an easy route to Best Picture.

Last year, the first indicator that La La Land wasn’t going to win was when it kept losing a lot of these categories to Arrival, Fantastic Beasts, and Hacksaw Ridge. If the winners prove to be all over the place again this year, look for some surprises in Best Picture.

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